Science and Prediction of Heavy Rainfall over China:Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

作者：Yali LUO,Jisong SUN,Ying LI,Rudi XIA,Yu DU,Shuai YANG,Yuanchun ZHANG,Jing CHEN,Kan DAI,Xueshun SHEN,Haoming CHEN,Feifan ZHOU,Yimin LIU,Shenming FU,Mengwen WU,Tiangui XIAO,Yangruixue CHEN,Huiqi LI,Mingxin LI

摘要：This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China(roughly between 1980 and 2019).The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives:1)the relevant synoptic weather systems,2)heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China,and 3)heavy rainfall induced by typhoons.The development and application of forecasting techniques for heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting methods.Greatly aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing,studies of heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features.A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of heavy rainfall has also been developed.Operational forecast of heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts,and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information.

发文机构：State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms National Meteorological Center State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences School of Atmospheric Sciences Institute of Heavy Rain Meteorological Administration Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory（Zhuhai） University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences

关键词：heavyrainfallreformandopening-upofnewChinaphysicalmechanismsforecastingtechniques

分类号： F42[经济管理—产业经济]