SAMPLE OPTIMIZATION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST TO SIMULATE TROPICAL STORMS(MERBOK, MAWAR, AND GUCHOL) USING THE OBSERVED TRACK

作者：李霁杭,高郁东,万齐林,张旭斌

摘要：Nowadays,ensemble forecasting is popular in numerical weather prediction(NWP).However,an ensemble may not produce a perfect Gaussian probability distribution due to limited members and the fact that some members significantly deviate from the true atmospheric state.Therefore,event samples with small probabilities may downgrade the accuracy of an ensemble forecast.In this study,the evolution of tropical storms(weak typhoon)was investigated and an observed tropical storm track was used to limit the probability distribution of samples.The ensemble forecast method used pure observation data instead of assimilated data.In addition,the prediction results for three tropical storm systems,Merbok,Mawar,and Guchol,showed that track and intensity errors could be reduced through sample optimization.In the research,the vertical structures of these tropical storms were compared,and the existence of different thermal structures was discovered.One possible reason for structural differences is sample optimization,and it may affect storm intensity and track.

发文机构：Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA

关键词：ensembleforecastsampleoptimizationtropicalstormobservedtrack

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]