SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FOR SPRING AND AUTUMN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BY THE NCEP CFSV2

作者：李婵珠,杨崧,李春晖,刘俊荷

摘要：In this study, we investigate the variations of spring and autumn air temperatures in southern China(SC) and associated atmospheric circulation patterns. During the boreal spring, the SC air temperature is mainly influenced by tropical sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs). On the one hand, the El Nino SSTA pattern may induce a stronger-than-normal western Pacific subtropical high, which leads to warming in SC. On the other hand, the warm SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean may trigger anomalous Rossby wave trains, which propagate northeastward and result in anomalously high temperature in SC. During the boreal autumn, however, the SC temperature is more likely to be affected by the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, such as the wave trains forced by the North Atlantic SSTAs.The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) is able to capture the climatology of SC air temperatures during both spring and autumn. For interannual variation, the CFSv2 shows a good skill for predicting the SC temperature in spring, due to the model's good performance in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies as responses to tropical SSTAs, in spite of the overestimated relationship with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). However,the model has a poor skill for predicting the SC temperature in autumn, primarily due to the unrealistic prediction of its relationship with the ENSO.

发文机构：School of Atmospheric Sciences Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory（Zhuhai） Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Thai Meteorological Department

关键词：SOUTHERNChinatemperatureNCEPCFSv2PREDICTIONSPRINGAUTUMN

分类号： P4223[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]P461.2