THE EFFECT OF SAMPLE OPTIMIZATION ON THE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER IN FORECASTING TYPHOON RAMMASUN (2014)

作者：李霁杭,万齐林,高郁东,肖辉

摘要：In a limited number of ensembles,some samples do not adequately reflect the true atmospheric state and can in turn affect forecast performance.This study explored the feasibility of sample optimization using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)for a simulation of the 2014 Super Typhoon Rammasun,which made landfall in southern China in July 2014.Under the premise of sufficient ensemble spread,keeping samples with a good fit to observations and eliminating those with poor fit can affect the performance of EnKF.In the sample optimization,states were selected based on the sample spatial correlation between the ensemble state and observations.The method discarded ensemble states that were less representative and,to maintain the overall ensemble size,generated new ensemble states by reproducing them from ensemble states with a good fit by adding random noise.Sample selection was performed based on radar echo data.Results showed that applying EnKF with optimized samples improved the estimated track,intensity, precipitation distribution,and inner-core structure of Typhoon Rammasun.Therefore,the authors proposed that distinguishing between samples with good and poor fits is vital for ensemble prediction,suggesting that sample optimization is necessary to the effective use of EnKF.

发文机构：Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

关键词：dataASSIMILATIONENSEMBLEpredictionSAMPLEOPTIMIZATIONTYPHOONRammasunENSEMBLEKALMANfilter

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]