FORECAST AND SERVICE PERFORMANCE ON RAPIDLY INTENSIFICATION PROCESS OF TYPHOONS RAMMASUN(2014) AND HATO(2017)

作者：QIAN WANG,YINGLONG XU,NA WEI,SHUAI WANG,HAO HU

摘要：Super typhoons Rammasun(No.1409) and Hato(No.1713) both underwent rapidly intensification(RI) in the northern part of South China Sea before they made landfall. Forecast skills and service performance of tropical cyclones’ RI process in the real-time operation is analyzed in this study. TCs are prone to intensify rapidly in the South China Sea, which is a complex process concluding complicated interaction between large scale environmental systems and tropical cyclone inner-core structure. The forecast performance of Rammasun and Hato shown that the subjective forecast of CMA has defect in the intensity forecast especially for the long-rang more than 48-hr. However, forecasters have chance to capture the signal of RI besides numerical operational models, which contribute to gain precious time for disaster reduction affairs. The role of local sea surface temperature and the warm core structure revealed by the numerical simulations are highlighted in doing comprehensive analysis in real-time forecast.

发文机构：National Meteorological Center of CMA State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in Chinese Academy of Meterological Sciences Department of physics

关键词：rapidlyintensification(RI)FORECASTRammasunHato

分类号： P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]