WMO TYPHOON LANDFALL FORECAST DEMONSTRATION PROJECT(WMO-TLFDP) PROGRESS AND FUTURE PLANS

作者：Xiaotu Lei,Hui Yu,Guomin Chen,Barbara Brown,Sai Tick Chan,Ajit Tyagi

摘要：The 'WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(TLFDP)' was started in May 2010 in conjunction with the start of the Shanghai World Expo 2010. The project was successful in terms of assisting the local forecasters in providing an efficient tropical cyclone(TC) forecast service for World Expo 2010, demonstrating the performance of the most up-to-date techniques in TC forecasting, and enhancing the ability of forecasters to effectively use products based on advanced TC forecasting techniques. The first phase was completed in December 2012 and the second phase was completed in December 2015. The third phase(TLFDP-III) started in 2016.During its first(2010-2012) and second(2013-2015) phases, TLFDP collected real-time TC forecast products from 15 Typhoon Forecast Product Providers(TFPPs). The products include deterministic track and intensity forecasts, ensemble track and intensity forecasts, deterministic wind radii forecasts, wind probability forecasts, and gridded model outputs. The products were disseminated through the project’s website and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.TLFDP has made significant progress in TC forecast verification, including setting up the tools for both realtime and post-season TC forecast verification, developing and integrating several new verification techniques, carrying out a survey on the operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, and contributing to the WMO document 'Verification of tropical cyclone forecasts'. The post-season forecast verification was reported to the Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since 2013. New consensus methods for TC track and intensity forecasts were also proposed either based on Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPSs) products or multiple deterministic NWP model products. Two training workshops on TC forecasting were organized by the TLFDP and held in Shanghai, China, in May 2010 and June 2012, respectively, and seven research fellowship projects were implemented as joint

发文机构：Shanghai Typhoon Institute National Center for Atmospheric Research Hongkong Observatory Indian Meteorological Society

关键词：WMOFORECASTDEMONSTRATIONProjectTYPHOONLANDFALLevaluationandassessmentWMO Forecast Demonstration Projecttyphoonlandfallevaluation and assessment

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]