TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE

作者：K.J.E.Walsh,S.J.Camargo,T.R.Knutson,J.Kossin,T.-C.Lee,H.Murakami,C.Patricola

摘要：Since the Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-8), held in December 2014, progress has been made in our understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclone(TC) characteristics, climate and climate change. New analysis of observations has revealed trends in the latitude of maximum TC intensity and in TC translation speed. Climate models are demonstrating an increasing ability to simulate the observed TC climatology and its regional variations. The limited representation of air-sea interaction processes in most climate simulations of TCs remains an issue. Consensus projections of future TC behavior continue to indicate decreases in TC numbers, increases in their maximum intensities and increases in TC-related rainfall. Future sea level rise will exacerbate the impact of storm surge on coastal regions, assuming all other factors equal. Studies have also begun to estimate the effect on TCs of the climate change that has occurred to date. Recommendations are made regarding future research directions.

发文机构：School of Earth Sciences Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory NOAA/GFDL NOAA/National National Centers for Environmental Information Hong Kong Observatory NOAA/GFDL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

关键词：TROPICALCYCLONECLIMATEchangeCLIMATEVARIABILITY

分类号： P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]P467