SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING

作者：Philip Klotzbach,Eric Blake,Joanne Camp,Louis-Philippe Caron,Johnny C.L.Chan,Nam-Young Kang,Yuri Kuleshov,Sai-Ming Lee,Hiroyuki Murakami,Mark Saunders,Yuhei Takaya,Frederic Vitart,Ruifen Zhan

摘要：This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity.In addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood.Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018.Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018.Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is included.Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.

发文机构：Colorado State University NOAA/National Hurricane Center Met Office Barcelona Supercomputing Centre Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration Bureau of Meteorology Hong Kong Observatory Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory University College London Meteorological Research Institute European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration

关键词：HURRICANETYPHOONtropicalCYCLONESEASONALforecastingforecastSKILL

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]