TROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY FORECASTING MODEL IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

作者：JAE-WON CHOI,YUMI CHA

摘要：A seasonal probability prediction model for tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in the western North Pacifi c(5°-25°N,110°-180°E)was developed using a simple logistic regression method.The predictors used in this model were total fi ve:850 h Pa relative vorticity,200-850 h Pa vertical wind shear,600 h Pa relative humidity,300 h Pa equivalent potential temperature,and sea surface temperature(SST).Four predictors except for SST were obtained from differences of spatial-averaged value between May and January,and time average of Ni?o-3.4 index from February to April was used to consider the SST effects.As a result of prediction for the TC genesis from June to December during 1951 to 2007,years that the model forecasts are 21 years among the total 28 years when the observed TC genesis frequency was higher than normal year.The overall predictability was about 75%,and the model was also verifi ed statistically through cross validation analysis using a method of the hindcast.

发文机构：National Institute of Meteorological Sciences

关键词：TROPICALCYCLONEGENESISlogisticregressionmodelPREDICTORScrossvalidation

分类号： P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]