AN INTRODUCTION OF ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVATION, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST IN JMA

作者：YOSHIAKI TAKEUCHI

摘要：Impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings are the key approach to reduce disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs). This review paper highlights Japan Meteorological Agency’s and RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center’s development and eff orts to operationalization of various TC observation, analysis and numerical weather prediction(NWP) techniques, which are the fundamental basis of the approach.TC monitoring has been carried out with geostationary satellites named Himawari series since 1978. Since 2015 the fi rst new generation satellite Himawari-8 has established new era of the TC monitoring at a high resolution and frequency. In addition, space-borne microwave instruments have provided many hydrological properties around TC.As for ground based observation, radar is a powerful tool to investigate the TC structure characterized by rain distribution and wind fi elds. A phased-array radar gives us the vivid pictures of individual cumulonimbus with its quick scan ability.RSMC-Tokyo uses the Himawari-8/9 images, atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs), space-borne microwave images, sea surface winds of scatterometer, and ground-based radar wind observation for the TC intensity analysis. For NWP, many eff orts have been put into new assimilation schemes, high-resolution models and combined atmosphere-ocean models. Ensemble based analysis and forecast system are considered to be eff ective to estimate the uncertainty of the TC forecasts.

发文机构：Administration Department

关键词：TROPICALCYCLONEOBSERVATIONTROPICALCYCLONEanalysisTROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTJMA

分类号： P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]P457.8