PERFORMANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2016

作者：GUOMIN CHEN,XIPING ZHANG,PEIYAN CHEN,HUI YU,RIJIN WAN

摘要：The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively,indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015;however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times.A new error tracking tool,called a 'Track Error Rose',was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015.

发文机构：Shanghai Typhoon Institute

关键词：TROPICALCYCLONETRACKINTENSITYFORECASTverificationtropical cyclonetrackintensityforecast verification

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]