ANALYSIS ON ABNORMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR OF ECMWF-IFS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

作者：WEI XU,LIANGBO QI,YUGANG DU,LI XIA

摘要：By considering distance error and direction error, Tropical Cyclone(TC) track forecasts with abnormal forecast error(AFE) at lead time of 48 h by ECMWF-IFS are selected out from 2010 to 2013. Factors closely related to AFE cases are investigated. There are 7 factors which are closely related to AFE cases. The most common one is Landfall or Passing through big island(LP) which appears 21 times among all 55 AFE cases. But LP often coexists with other factors to cause AFE cases. The second in the list is Coexistence with other TC or cloud cluster(CO) which affects more than one third of all AFE cases. Besides those 7 factors, fault of TCtracker also results in some AFE cases. There are no simple indicators for forecasters to anticipate a possible AFE case in advance. It seems that forecasters still have to anticipate AFE cases by their experiences and with synthetic analysis on all available data. Some possible ways to improve AFE cases are discussed and proposed to forecasters. That includes relying on products from ensemble prediction system or guidance from other models, simple translation process and manual analysis of TC track by forecasters under some circumstances.

发文机构：Jinshan Meteorological Bureau Shanghai Meteorological Center

关键词：trackFORECASTABNORMALFORECASTerrorTROPICALCYCLONEECMWF-IFS

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]