OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 1:RECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE

作者：Joseph B.Courtney,Sébastien Langlade,Charles R.Sampson,John A.Knaff,Thomas Birchard,Stephen Barlow,S.D.Kotal,Tarik Kriat,Woojeong Lee,Richard Pasch,Udai Shimada

摘要：This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in 2018.Recent advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity changes.Although intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some improvement.The greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional models.These models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational data.Continued improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.

发文机构：Bureau of Meteorology Meteo-France Naval Research Laboratory（NRL） NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research Central Pacific Hurricane Centre（CPHC） Joint Typhoon Warning Centre（JTWC） India Meteorological Department（IMD） Korea Meteorological Administration（KMA） National Hurricane Centre（NHC） Japanese Meteorological Agency（JMA）

关键词：TROPICALCYCLONEINTENSITYCHANGErapidINTENSIFICATION

分类号： P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]